Interesting how most of this sits inside a US/China frame. The rest of the world feels more like an observer than a player. But the line between watching and influencing is thinner than it looks.
The Manus piece is the part most people are going to underweight. It's one thing to block future capital flows. It's another to exit-ban founders to claw back a closed deal. That's a new rung up from the 2022 chip controls. The real question is how US LPs sitting on Chinese AI positions actually get out, since secondary liquidity just evaporated. Hold to zero or eat a 70 percent haircut?
Retatrutide is the real deal and genuinely miraculous. The study name is "TRIUMPH" which is totally apt. For those with tendency to obesity It is like getting a cheat code for the game of life. Not only fat loss, but improvement across the board on metabolism-related blood chemistry, low side effects, muscle retention or even gains with moderate training (and mind blowing transformation results for older guys who need TRT, with which it is not just compatible but apparently synergistic). And even more intriguingly in terms of implications, there are widespread reports of it rapidly neutralizing dopamine-hit-based addictions (hinting that all of the impulsive vices are manifestations of a similar underlying neuro-biochemical mechanism). Many people with severe and long term problems with alcohlism, chain smoking, other drugs, gambling, risky sex, p*rn, etc. say that, just like with weight and overeating, after years of struggle and failure, that surprisingly they just stopped wanting to indulge in their particular vice, practically overnight. That's why I call them "Anti-Las Vegas drugs". My hottest take is that it is completely within the realm of possibility that serious obesity could practically disappear in America in a decade, with major "surprise" incidental improvements as to the impacts of those other behavioral dimensions as well. Probably the politicians, regulators, doctors, or culture warriors will all try to take credit for that. Really it will be the amazing folks at Eli Lily.
Extrapolating on your "talent could be next", do you think it is possible that China may extend its Negative List limiting or prohibiting American ownership, to AI-related software-development legal entities? That will hit American companies off-shoring software dev to China.
Interesting how most of this sits inside a US/China frame. The rest of the world feels more like an observer than a player. But the line between watching and influencing is thinner than it looks.
discussed this in my 2025 annual letter...
Classic Chamath tone.
Feels like he’s always pointing at second-order effects people aren’t seeing yet.
Even when you don’t fully agree, it makes you think twice.
The Manus piece is the part most people are going to underweight. It's one thing to block future capital flows. It's another to exit-ban founders to claw back a closed deal. That's a new rung up from the 2022 chip controls. The real question is how US LPs sitting on Chinese AI positions actually get out, since secondary liquidity just evaporated. Hold to zero or eat a 70 percent haircut?
Retatrutide is the real deal and genuinely miraculous. The study name is "TRIUMPH" which is totally apt. For those with tendency to obesity It is like getting a cheat code for the game of life. Not only fat loss, but improvement across the board on metabolism-related blood chemistry, low side effects, muscle retention or even gains with moderate training (and mind blowing transformation results for older guys who need TRT, with which it is not just compatible but apparently synergistic). And even more intriguingly in terms of implications, there are widespread reports of it rapidly neutralizing dopamine-hit-based addictions (hinting that all of the impulsive vices are manifestations of a similar underlying neuro-biochemical mechanism). Many people with severe and long term problems with alcohlism, chain smoking, other drugs, gambling, risky sex, p*rn, etc. say that, just like with weight and overeating, after years of struggle and failure, that surprisingly they just stopped wanting to indulge in their particular vice, practically overnight. That's why I call them "Anti-Las Vegas drugs". My hottest take is that it is completely within the realm of possibility that serious obesity could practically disappear in America in a decade, with major "surprise" incidental improvements as to the impacts of those other behavioral dimensions as well. Probably the politicians, regulators, doctors, or culture warriors will all try to take credit for that. Really it will be the amazing folks at Eli Lily.
Extrapolating on your "talent could be next", do you think it is possible that China may extend its Negative List limiting or prohibiting American ownership, to AI-related software-development legal entities? That will hit American companies off-shoring software dev to China.