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Harrison's avatar

Fascinating! I’m Harrison, an ex fine dining industry line cook. My stack "The Secret Ingredient" adapts hit restaurant recipes (mostly NYC and L.A.) for easy home cooking.

check us out:

https://thesecretingredient.substack.com

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wkarshat@gmail.com's avatar

Legacy financial press is compulsive in spinning the macro numbers, to arrive at a punchier headline. Earlier reporting of the Berkshire Hathaway "cash" position of around $350B as 5% of the Treasuries actually compared to the totals of the issued BILLs, 52 week and shorter maturities. Those are maybe 20% of all the Treasuries held privately.

FED's own balances are intentionally opaque and reported in bulk. How on a given day it totals the accounts designated as "reserves held by all U.S. commercial banks at the Federal Reserve" may warrant scrutiny. There is a reason the organization has never been audited, while it shuffles trillions between various programs and accounts. For example, the details of the most recent activities of the Discount Window extend to 2023. In recent years FED ran a dozen credit 'facilities', like PDCF, CPFF, and MMLF. Only a year ago it wound down BTFP, instituted in March 2023 in response to the SVB crisis.

It's bulking-up Federal Reserve Standby Facility (FRSF/SRF). Hedge funds engaging in the 'basis trade' have been hit with major margin calls mid-April, due to a rapid and unexpected bump in the yields of longer-term debt. The spread between the price of a Treasury and a matching derivative had jumped, and now those funds may need to be bailed out.

FED watchers track numbers being released daily and weekly. 20 US Treasury broker-dealers, including JPMorgan Chase, BofA, and Wells Fargo, likely tell the FED what to do, before and after the daily auctions. But regular investors only get 8 official updates a year, when Powell recites what transpired in the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and the press regurgitates it in sound bites. The next meeting starts tomorrow, Wed.

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