Thats a great analysis. I learnt alot from both slide decks, very comprehensive and well thought-out. I do appreciate you sharing your insights across multiple domains.
I did want to point out one thing though. McKinsey has a shoddy track record when it comes to forecasts/analysis. Here is what Vinod Khosla had to say about them [1]. They often benefit from the lack of transparency and accountability, and sell the illusion of knowledge as opposed to actual insight. Obviously, not everything they say is wrong but we need to exercise caution and take their advice with a grain of salt. Also check out John Oliver's piece [2] and the book - "When McKinsey Comes to Town" [3] - if it floats your fancy.
I recommend reading Doomberg, Robert Byrce, and Alex Epstein's Substacks about the energy transition. Always remember that ESG is a demoralized CCP-style social credit score system. Anyone who works in ESG is a mid commissar: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/how-to-raise-your-esg-score
Chamath (and/or team), I respect the work that goes into something like this deck and was looking forward to learning via this method, but how can I trust anything you say at all in these deep dives when you get such basics in the "Decarbonizing Agriculture" (my area of expertise) so woefully wrong? Would the experts in other fields feel the same way?
Slide 52. Does that include intrinsic emissions in construction? Or the levelised intrinsic emissions divided by average lifespan?
Slide 60 Nuclear is only emissions free if you’re looking at marginal emissions. It has emissions associated with construction that needs to be spread across the lifespan. This isn’t completely negligible.
Slide 88 I’m not an expert in the US market, but in other markets you might have a standing charge based on connection capacity (kW) on top of energy usage (kWh)
slide 99 It’s worth mentioning that as well as making generation more consistent, work on Demand Side Response (DSR) also tries to make demand more flexible, which is an alternative approach.
Slide 101 There are other stationary grid scale storage e.g. compressed air, liquid air, thermal energy storage, flow battery (I’ve heard past mentions of location agnostic pumped storage but have no idea if that ever progressed)
There’s also the prospect of vehicle to grid technology which uses the EV fleet as a stabilising battery.
Slide 101 There' s the problem of critical minerals to consider as per the second slide pack.
Slide 129 There’s some room to increase the extent of animal and human waste reuse as fertiliser. There are safety risk if done improperly of introducing parasites and other toxic elements however.
The scope of substitution falls short of the nitrogen required so addition from other sources (e.g. ammonium fertiliser) is still needed. I don’t recall the exact book but Vaclav Smil discusses this. There’s also a problem with transportation of waste during reuse.
However this would help by effectively close the nitrogen loop and by proxy reduce greenhouse gases.
Slide 137 As well as the macronutrients and minerals, it’s also worth noting that plant based meat are ultra processed and lack both micronutrients and the cellular structure associated with animal meat. For reference Read the book “Ultraprocessed people”.
Minor
Slide 54 typically natural gas is burnt to spin a gas turbine. If it’s a constant baseload plant it might be a combined cycle gas turbine that uses the waste heat of the gas turbine to turn a secondary steam turbine
slide 55 That looks more like a DC generation than an AC (alternating current ) generator.
General point is that these slides ignore wave particle duality.
Slide 58 Not all wind turbines have a physical gearbox. Some forgo it. Magnetic gearboxes are also being looked at.
Slide 65 The steam is cooled in the condenser into process water, not the cooling tower. This can then be reused. The circulating water enters the condenser to cool it (and by proxy the process steam) this is then rejected into the atmosphere into steam where it escapes into the environment. This is not reused. Nuclear power plants in the past have reduced power generation due to drought causing a lack of circulation power. This means the condenser can’t cool fast enough to cool the process steam fast enough. This is solved by reducing the steam throughput and by consequence the power output.
Slide 67. I’m not an SMR expert but I’m pretty sure that SMRs still need a water source for cooling, similar to a smaller scale large conventional reactor.
Slide 88 I’m not an expert in the US market, but in other markets you might have a standing charge based on connection capacity (kW) on top of energy usage (kWh)
slide 97 Tidal power can be dispatched depending on the type. Tidal turbines can’t be dispatched, tidal barrage can.
Also natural gas dispatch-ability can vary depending on generation usage. Gas peaker plants can respond very quickly, combined cycle gas turbines take longer to respond.
Also solar thermal energy isn’t mentioned in the slides (niche compared to Solar photovoltaic but still a generation method)
Slide 99 solar power is more predictable than wind power, I’d put wind power last in intermittency due to the high variance.
You could technically also have coal with carbon capture as well as natural gas
slide 101 Spelling mistake, its power electrolysis not powers
slide 116 there’s some scope to reduce heating cost by higher building insulation, though this is likely outside the scope of this slide deck.
Slide 123 Whilst not applicable in the US, for less developed countries it’s likely that you can decarbonise by proxy by improving the transportation network and the cold chain to minimise spoilage. Would be good to review to see to what extent.
Slide 131 As much as I may wish and dream, I don’t think turning a cow into a double sided flamethrower helps in anyway on this matter. Maybe talk to Elon about this?
Dear Chamath, thanks for sharing and testing Deep Dives in specific areas. The first one you shared On Global Energy Transition is somewhat shallow and feels a pure summary of quotes from others. What is missing is the evaluation at the start why we do want to have a global energy transition. As you are part of the all in podcast having guests opposing the reasoning of the energy transition I would be interested to hear and understand their arguments and weigh them versus each other so that the reader can make his or her own opinion. Hope that makes sense.
Many errors in the data presented. For example, look at the nutritional facts for ground beef, impossible burger, and beyond burger. I have no idea where these numbers came from, but they are wrong. Perhaps your research associates are using ChatGPT.
The diagrams and models are fine, but ultimately we are drawing conclusions from the data, and it cannot be trusted.
Great content Brother. I thought it was hard to justify $100/mo when you announced your plans a few weeks ago but I do see the value. Not sure I can float it yet but I’m thinking about it “you know it’s hard out here for a pimp” lol
Thank you for sharing this; it's truly insightful. I have a specific interest in the intersection of Deep Tech and Life Sciences within the broader context of socio-economic and political trends. Given their direct influence on life sciences manufacturing and innovation, I find this area particularly compelling. I came across your insights accidentally through the ALL-IN Podcasts, and now, I'm eager to hear more about your perspectives. I really appreciate your initiative for sharing it with a broader audience!
Where did you get the $108Bn in Healthcare spending? Medicare was $900Bn and Medicaid was $734 Bn in 2021 according to CMS. Where's the 108 number come from?
Thats a great analysis. I learnt alot from both slide decks, very comprehensive and well thought-out. I do appreciate you sharing your insights across multiple domains.
I did want to point out one thing though. McKinsey has a shoddy track record when it comes to forecasts/analysis. Here is what Vinod Khosla had to say about them [1]. They often benefit from the lack of transparency and accountability, and sell the illusion of knowledge as opposed to actual insight. Obviously, not everything they say is wrong but we need to exercise caution and take their advice with a grain of salt. Also check out John Oliver's piece [2] and the book - "When McKinsey Comes to Town" [3] - if it floats your fancy.
[1] - https://youtu.be/HZcXup7p5-8?t=1880
[2] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiOUojVd6xQ
[3] - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/60644838-when-mckinsey-comes-to-town
I recommend reading Doomberg, Robert Byrce, and Alex Epstein's Substacks about the energy transition. Always remember that ESG is a demoralized CCP-style social credit score system. Anyone who works in ESG is a mid commissar: https://yuribezmenov.substack.com/p/how-to-raise-your-esg-score
Have you done a deep dive on the greenhouse gases in Uranus? I'd like to see that data.
lmao
Chamath (and/or team), I respect the work that goes into something like this deck and was looking forward to learning via this method, but how can I trust anything you say at all in these deep dives when you get such basics in the "Decarbonizing Agriculture" (my area of expertise) so woefully wrong? Would the experts in other fields feel the same way?
I would be interested in detail on what he gets wrong on "decarbonizing agriculture" I suspect I agree with you, but curious on your analysis.
Also, what "bucket" does agricultural transportation costs get put into? Transporting fresh vegetables thousands of miles isn't carbon free.
Hi I have some background in energy and there are a few problems with the slide deck.
I'll split the problems into major problems and minor quibbles.
Major:
Slide 48 There are serious problems with focussing on hydrogen as a method of energy storage.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-the-unbearable-lightness-of-hydrogen/
Slide 52. Does that include intrinsic emissions in construction? Or the levelised intrinsic emissions divided by average lifespan?
Slide 60 Nuclear is only emissions free if you’re looking at marginal emissions. It has emissions associated with construction that needs to be spread across the lifespan. This isn’t completely negligible.
Slide 88 I’m not an expert in the US market, but in other markets you might have a standing charge based on connection capacity (kW) on top of energy usage (kWh)
slide 99 It’s worth mentioning that as well as making generation more consistent, work on Demand Side Response (DSR) also tries to make demand more flexible, which is an alternative approach.
Slide 101 There are other stationary grid scale storage e.g. compressed air, liquid air, thermal energy storage, flow battery (I’ve heard past mentions of location agnostic pumped storage but have no idea if that ever progressed)
There’s also the prospect of vehicle to grid technology which uses the EV fleet as a stabilising battery.
Slide 101 There' s the problem of critical minerals to consider as per the second slide pack.
Slide 129 There’s some room to increase the extent of animal and human waste reuse as fertiliser. There are safety risk if done improperly of introducing parasites and other toxic elements however.
The scope of substitution falls short of the nitrogen required so addition from other sources (e.g. ammonium fertiliser) is still needed. I don’t recall the exact book but Vaclav Smil discusses this. There’s also a problem with transportation of waste during reuse.
However this would help by effectively close the nitrogen loop and by proxy reduce greenhouse gases.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sewage_sludge
Slide 137 As well as the macronutrients and minerals, it’s also worth noting that plant based meat are ultra processed and lack both micronutrients and the cellular structure associated with animal meat. For reference Read the book “Ultraprocessed people”.
Minor
Slide 54 typically natural gas is burnt to spin a gas turbine. If it’s a constant baseload plant it might be a combined cycle gas turbine that uses the waste heat of the gas turbine to turn a secondary steam turbine
slide 55 That looks more like a DC generation than an AC (alternating current ) generator.
General point is that these slides ignore wave particle duality.
Slide 58 Not all wind turbines have a physical gearbox. Some forgo it. Magnetic gearboxes are also being looked at.
Slide 65 The steam is cooled in the condenser into process water, not the cooling tower. This can then be reused. The circulating water enters the condenser to cool it (and by proxy the process steam) this is then rejected into the atmosphere into steam where it escapes into the environment. This is not reused. Nuclear power plants in the past have reduced power generation due to drought causing a lack of circulation power. This means the condenser can’t cool fast enough to cool the process steam fast enough. This is solved by reducing the steam throughput and by consequence the power output.
Slide 67. I’m not an SMR expert but I’m pretty sure that SMRs still need a water source for cooling, similar to a smaller scale large conventional reactor.
Slide 88 I’m not an expert in the US market, but in other markets you might have a standing charge based on connection capacity (kW) on top of energy usage (kWh)
slide 97 Tidal power can be dispatched depending on the type. Tidal turbines can’t be dispatched, tidal barrage can.
Also natural gas dispatch-ability can vary depending on generation usage. Gas peaker plants can respond very quickly, combined cycle gas turbines take longer to respond.
Also solar thermal energy isn’t mentioned in the slides (niche compared to Solar photovoltaic but still a generation method)
Slide 99 solar power is more predictable than wind power, I’d put wind power last in intermittency due to the high variance.
You could technically also have coal with carbon capture as well as natural gas
slide 101 Spelling mistake, its power electrolysis not powers
slide 116 there’s some scope to reduce heating cost by higher building insulation, though this is likely outside the scope of this slide deck.
Slide 123 Whilst not applicable in the US, for less developed countries it’s likely that you can decarbonise by proxy by improving the transportation network and the cold chain to minimise spoilage. Would be good to review to see to what extent.
Slide 131 As much as I may wish and dream, I don’t think turning a cow into a double sided flamethrower helps in anyway on this matter. Maybe talk to Elon about this?
Regards,
Amazing deep dive. I would love to subscribe but price is beyond my affordability at this point. Hopefully in the future I can afford it.
Dear Chamath, thanks for sharing and testing Deep Dives in specific areas. The first one you shared On Global Energy Transition is somewhat shallow and feels a pure summary of quotes from others. What is missing is the evaluation at the start why we do want to have a global energy transition. As you are part of the all in podcast having guests opposing the reasoning of the energy transition I would be interested to hear and understand their arguments and weigh them versus each other so that the reader can make his or her own opinion. Hope that makes sense.
Many errors in the data presented. For example, look at the nutritional facts for ground beef, impossible burger, and beyond burger. I have no idea where these numbers came from, but they are wrong. Perhaps your research associates are using ChatGPT.
The diagrams and models are fine, but ultimately we are drawing conclusions from the data, and it cannot be trusted.
Great content Brother. I thought it was hard to justify $100/mo when you announced your plans a few weeks ago but I do see the value. Not sure I can float it yet but I’m thinking about it “you know it’s hard out here for a pimp” lol
Thank you for sharing this; it's truly insightful. I have a specific interest in the intersection of Deep Tech and Life Sciences within the broader context of socio-economic and political trends. Given their direct influence on life sciences manufacturing and innovation, I find this area particularly compelling. I came across your insights accidentally through the ALL-IN Podcasts, and now, I'm eager to hear more about your perspectives. I really appreciate your initiative for sharing it with a broader audience!
Thanks for sharing. Will stay tuned on pricing - looks like institution is the target audience of this product.
someone of ur position sharing value/content at the depth is definetely not common so thanks
Doing our bit. https://electricdrives.tv/ev-leaders-jan-simmonds-chief-strategy-officer-at-zimbl - one less car at a time.
I've been a member for nearly a month however there has not been any new content for subscribers (i.e. short essays or deep dive).
When is the next deep dive coming out? My understanding was that it was the 1st of every month.
Where did you get the $108Bn in Healthcare spending? Medicare was $900Bn and Medicaid was $734 Bn in 2021 according to CMS. Where's the 108 number come from?
https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/nhe-fact-sheet#:~:text=Historical%20NHE%2C%202021:,17%20percent%20of%20total%20NHE.
Referring to slide 14 of IRA deck